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10/1 - 10/4 Storm weekend outlook

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  • 10/1 - 10/4 Storm weekend outlook

    UPDATED FRIDAY 11AM

    Many, including myself were looking to get out to fish this weekend and may do so if the conditions lighten from what is being forecast (currently weekend is highly variable between light rain to hurricane). I'll update this again as more information is known.

    Source/s: Capital Weather Gang / Wapo, NOAA, WindFinder, Windy (app)

    Today (Friday): Breezy and cool times continue. Like yesterday, plenty of rain — likely even more in the end. While rain is as close to 100% guaranteed as we get around here, the best odds of heavy stuff may come late in the day. High temperatures likely stay capped at around 55-60 degrees. Rain jackets are recommended even with umbrellas because of strong northeasterly breezes around 15 mph, gusty at times. Confidence: Medium

    Tonight: Flood watches are to be taken seriously, especially at night. Moderate to heavy rain periods continue with northeast wind 20-25 mph. Even if rain lets up nearer dawn, wind may not. Rain amounts 2-3 inches are not impossible by Saturday morning. We think the heaviest amounts may focus south and southwest of the immediate D.C. area. Low temperatures bottom out in the upper 40s to low 50s. Confidence: Medium-High

    For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast into next week…

    Tomorrow (Saturday): Cool rain may continue at times. Especially in the morning (60% chance). Winds from the northeast may remain noticeable around 25 mph at times. Off-and-on light showers are possible through the afternoon, with clouds staying put. We have the tiniest silver lining, perhaps, with slightly milder temperatures getting into the mid-to-upper 60s. Confidence: Medium

    Tomorrow night:
    We still do have wind around 20-25 mph at times, out of the northeast most likely, but at least rain chances are lower at around 40%. A quick downpour can’t be ruled out, but we generally think the rain’s texture will be that of showers or brief periods of rain. We’ll keep an eye on it. Our ground is soaked! Low temperatures in the 50s are likely, with the warmest readings downtown and south of town. Confidence: Medium

    Sunday: It looks like our chances for rain and showers go up just a little bit (to around 50%) during the day, but the stiff breeze around 15-20 mph out of the northeast may pester you more. High temperatures generally head for the mid-60s. Clouds would probably have to give us a few breaks to get any higher in temperature, and that is not very likely. Joaquin may be passing by in this time frame. There’s still some question to how close it might get, but the trend has been far enough offshore not to worry too much. Confidence: Low-Medium

    Forecast radar at 5 p.m. Friday from the overnight run of the NAM model. (Weatherbell.com)

    A LOOK AHEAD

    Sunday night: Still could be damp (50% chance) with almost-guaranteed clouds along with mild, clammy conditions. Low temperatures hover in the mid-50s to around 60. Confidence: Low-Medium

    Rain, clouds, breeze—are all moving out slowly by surely–by Monday and Tuesday. Any rain and showers (50% chance) on Monday could scoot out of the way by afternoon to make way for a few cracks in the clouds. We have increasing sunshine and brighter skies for Tuesday, which currently looks dry. High temperatures remain comfortable and fall-like, in the upper 60 to low 70s. We may need a good deal of sunshine to get much above the 70-degree mark, but I am optimistic. Confidence: Low-Medium
    Last edited by Dimo; 10-02-2015, 10:55 AM. Reason: Updated forecast
    -Omid

    2015 ivory outback

  • #2
    I think I just bought the last generator in Glen Burnie. While standing in Lowes looking at a generator more expensive than I wanted to spend, I called Home Depot, Tractor Suppply, ACE, and Sears. None of them even had a generator, let alone a few to choose from. Needless to say I bought the one I was keeping my hands on at Lowes. I just hope this thing powers my mixer
    2015 Hobie Outback
    2001 Dagger Cayman

    John

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    • #3
      Smart move. Landfall hurricanes in the DC area causing damage and powerloss occur on average every two - three years not counting the average everyday storms or Pepco / BGE reliability issues.


      Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
      -Omid

      2015 ivory outback

      Comment


      • #4
        I've been a home owner for about 4 months now, it was an investment that needed to be made. Just bought a chain saw not long ago too, that might come in handy! Now a stop for gas and liquor before I go home tonight, should be all set.
        2015 Hobie Outback
        2001 Dagger Cayman

        John

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        • #5
          Originally posted by silasvirus82 View Post
          I've been a home owner for about 4 months now, it was an investment that needed to be made. Just bought a chain saw not long ago too, that might come in handy! Now a stop for gas and liquor before I go home tonight, should be all set.
          We just bought a house a month ago...hope I don't need an insurance claim already. I have no chainsaw, but I will stock up on essentials...like beer.
          Hobie fleet:
          2017 Quest 13
          2015 Outback
          2014 Outback

          Comment


          • #6
            European model is saying it will be pretty far off the coast- every hour the models shift it east- we will still get windy conditions, rains, etc. but no hurricane- European modeling has the latest technology and more powerful computers than NOAA has- we can thank Sequestration for our NHC not getting the funding they need to modernize...anyway I don't see us with a hurricane in our back yard Sunday...it will be far enough out to sea that we will dodge the bullet-
            "Lady Luck" 2016 Red Hibiscus Hobie Outback, Lowrance Hook2-7TS
            2018 Seagrass Green Hobie Compass, Humminbird 798 ci HD SI
            "Wet Dream" 2011 yellow Ocean Prowler 13
            Charter member of Tonkin Gulf Yacht Club

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            • #7
              I WILL fish somewhere on Saturday. May even have sunshine, but I am bummed about all this wind. Can't launch the Yak, can't fish the washing machine surf, river gauge is all over the place so can't plan on a cove or creek, all just so depressing! May throw cast net in overflow street and try to get some bait.

              Comment


              • #8
                Dimo- Thanks for putting that together for everyone ! I had been planning on a trip to the CBBT for bull reds but am figuring that will be unfishable regardless so this is giving me some hope I might be able to squeeze in something in local waters Saturday.
                John Hostalka

                Delaware Paddlesports and
                Hobie Fishing team member

                2018 Camo Hobie Outback
                2015 Hobie Outback

                Comment


                • #9
                  No problem, I was looking to do the same at the CBBT this weekend but it looks like mid to late next week may be the first time things calm down enough for me.


                  Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
                  -Omid

                  2015 ivory outback

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Pm me if you ever would like another boat along with ya. I've done laps around fisherman's but never hit the CBBT, other than along the fisherman's side
                    John Hostalka

                    Delaware Paddlesports and
                    Hobie Fishing team member

                    2018 Camo Hobie Outback
                    2015 Hobie Outback

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I'll take a look at things on Sunday when planning my week against client meetings and whatnot. If it's looking likely that I'll head down, I'll definitely hit you up.

                      Forecast updated with latest...


                      Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
                      -Omid

                      2015 ivory outback

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        It looks like things have settled down.

                        As far as insurance read the policy again.

                        i was badly burned by Allstate a few years ago.

                        Policy mentioned named tropical cyclones but i though cyclones were out in the pacific. if my county had not been included in part of the warnings, Allstate would have covered it all That was a very expensive mistake. tropical storms & hurricanes are cyclones.
                        When Irene did 50 K damage to house, trees on house & shed, ripped up driveway... Allstate paid 10% of the repair cost. the rest was out of my pocket. I appealed & voiced concerns to Md insurance commission as well as state delegates to no avail. A friend was insured with Erie, & had a similar amount of damage, he was entirely covered subject to his deductibles.

                        I looked at alternatives and many if not most have a rider for tropical cyclones. I'm with Erie now.
                        Red 2015 Hobie Outback
                        Olive 2015 PA 14

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                        • #13
                          Similar experience on my end but with burst pipes caused by carpenter bees opening up vents to the exterior wall. Watch out for those insurers.

                          Forecast updated


                          Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
                          -Omid

                          2015 ivory outback

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by dasher View Post
                            It looks like things have settled down.

                            As far as insurance read the policy again.

                            i was badly burned by Allstate a few years ago.

                            Policy mentioned named tropical cyclones but i though cyclones were out in the pacific. if my county had not been included in part of the warnings, Allstate would have covered it all That was a very expensive mistake. tropical storms & hurricanes are cyclones.
                            When Irene did 50 K damage to house, trees on house & shed, ripped up driveway... Allstate paid 10% of the repair cost. the rest was out of my pocket. I appealed & voiced concerns to Md insurance commission as well as state delegates to no avail. A friend was insured with Erie, & had a similar amount of damage, he was entirely covered subject to his deductibles.

                            I looked at alternatives and many if not most have a rider for tropical cyclones. I'm with Erie now.
                            Hmmm, guess I need to go look at our policy; it's through USAA.
                            Hobie fleet:
                            2017 Quest 13
                            2015 Outback
                            2014 Outback

                            Comment

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